Week 18 data
Craft number, flights and hours have dropped from earlier in January

index    …    Craft    …    Flights    …    Hours
1    …    DJS141    …    26    …    16.4
2    …    DJS156    …    11    …    11.5
3    …    DJS150    …    14    …    9.5
4    …    DJS153    …    11    …    9.5
5    …    DJS145    …    12    …    8.9
6    …    DJS161    …    10    …    8.6
7    …    DJS160    …    10    …    8.3
8    …    DJS148    …    11    …    7.8
9    …    DJS146    …    9    …    7.7
10    …    DJS139    …    11    …    6.7
11    …    DJS152    …    8    …    6.5
12    …    DJS142    …    6    …    5.4
13    …    DJS119    …    6    …    4.9
14    …    DJS115    …    5    …    3.3
15    …    DJS116    …    2    …    2.3
16    …    DJS158    …    3    …    2.2
17    …    DJS134    …    3    …    1.9
18    …    DJS131    …    2    …    0.3
19    …    DJS132    …    1    …    0.1
….    …    Grand Total    …    161    …    121.6

moriarty:

Week 18 data
Craft number, flights and hours have dropped from earlier in January

index    …    Craft    …    Flights    …    Hours
1    …    DJS141    …    26    …    16.4
2    …    DJS156    …    11    …    11.5
3    …    DJS150    …    14    …    9.5
4    …    DJS153    …    11    …    9.5
5    …    DJS145    …    12    …    8.9
6    …    DJS161    …    10    …    8.6
7    …    DJS160    …    10    …    8.3
8    …    DJS148    …    11    …    7.8
9    …    DJS146    …    9    …    7.7
10    …    DJS139    …    11    …    6.7
11    …    DJS152    …    8    …    6.5
12    …    DJS142    …    6    …    5.4
13    …    DJS119    …    6    …    4.9
14    …    DJS115    …    5    …    3.3
15    …    DJS116    …    2    …    2.3
16    …    DJS158    …    3    …    2.2
17    …    DJS134    …    3    …    1.9
18    …    DJS131    …    2    …    0.3
19    …    DJS132    …    1    …    0.1
….    …    Grand Total    …    161    …    121.6

Not that their data has been stellar to date, but one thing to keep in mind about charter is the cyclical nature of the business.  This part of the year is slow in general, but with our current economic struggles led in part by bankrupt developers who once were a primary target of this type of program, its not hard to see why the numbers are looking a little grim.

Week	__	Hours
0	__	82.8
1	__	82.2
2	__	56.2
3	__	29.3
4	__	73.8
5	__	69.9
6	__	73.6
7	__	78.4
8	__	42.3
9	__	81.6
10	__	83.9
11	__	124.1
12	__	55.0
13	__	10.8
14	__	29.8
15	__	92.0
16	__	120.9
17	__	137.5
18	__	114.0

Total non-training flight hours by week since Day Jet  Official Launch

(use my best guess on training flights == KGNV to KGNV or Ocala touch and go loops)

Linear Air has to be wondering about the wisdom of starting operations with the Eclipse 500.

They currently have two Eclipse 500 aircraft on the line.

On December 18th, they flew one aircraft to Nantucket and made an attempt to fly that aircraft back to KBED that same day, but the flight had to divert back to Nantucket.

They then had to wait until January 23rd to get the aircraft back to KBED and it hasn't flown on an IFR flight plan since that time.

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N15ND/history

Their other aircraft arrived at KBED on December 18th and hasn't flown a flight on an IFR flight plan since that time.

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N575CC/history

 

Linear Air isn't the only Eclipse 500 charter service suffering the winter blues.

North American Jet also has two Eclipse 500 aircraft on the line. Before icing season, North American was getting good utilization on their first Eclipse 500.

However, they haven't flown a revenue flight on an IFR flight plan since the beginning of November.

Definitely been IMC with icing here at KBED, especially this week. We've had maybe 2-3 VFR days in January. I wonder why Linear hasn't moved the Eclipses to the Caribbean where they have some operations. At least they could do some flight training down there.

---

-David, KBED, Mustang #165

Week 19 Utilization                        
Index    ..    Craft    …    Total    …    Flights
1    ..    DJS161    …    22.8        21
2    ..    DJS156    …    14.9        17
3    ..    DJS146    …    13.5        16
4    ..    DJS162    …    12.7        13
5    ..    DJS148    …    12.2        17
6    ..    DJS141    …    12.1        11
7    ..    DJS160    …    10.6        13
8    ..    DJS139    …    9.6        11
9    ..    DJS152    …    7.7        12
10    .    DJS158    …    6.9        8
11    .    DJS153    …    6.1        7
12    .    DJS145    …    4.6        4
13    .    DJS116    …    3.3        4
14    .    DJS109    …    3.0        4
15    .    DJS131    …    2.6        3
16    .    DJS130    …    2.5        2
17    .    DJS136    …    2.2        3
18    .    DJS115    …    1.8        2
19    .    DJS163    …    1.1        2
20    .    DJS135    …    1.1        2
21    .    DJS119    …    1.0        1
22    .    DJS142    …    1.0        1
….    .    Total    …    152.8        174

Please note, I dropped DJS162 from week 18 accidentally, numbers will need to be revised upward by 8 flights and 7 hours.  The KGNV to KGNV training has dropped off, so the next cohort of pilots may now be trained.

The early SN planes are flying infrequently in the past weeks, for example DJS126 (SN 2) did not fly.

got a call today from a guy looking for Orlando-Pensacola... I told him to call Dayjet. Here's what he said:

I called them, and they are not even close to comeptitive. They offered flights from airports that required him to drive almost 1 hour either side from his ultimate destination. He said they wanted to charge him $1500 or so, return if he agreed to an unacceptable depature window of 4-5 hours... which he considered a joke.

He said, Dayjet has been contacting him often over the last few years, since he must be on their radar as a frequent flier. He does 65 trips a year. Many regionlally. Even the Fla-Alabama trip they "could do" is offered outside of his acceptablility range for driving-to-the-ultimate-destination hassel facotr (more than an hour from the nearest airport to his destination) and offered at prices that makes no sense.

He admitted that MOST of his travel is longer than their range... Chicago, NY, St. Louis... etc...

This guy is savvy, and is flying via prop for the trip within range, and using charter or the airlines for trips out of Dayjet range which encompass ALL of his requirements, when destination proximity and price/convenience is considered.

If you have 30 or so 3 pax jets, and you make 6-8 (45 minute) flights a day.. how long can you remain in business?

Opinions?

Week 20 Utilization Data

Index    .    Craft    …    Hours    …    Flights
1    .    DJS148    …    13.5    …    15
2    .    DJS139    …    12.8    …    16
3    .    DJS162    …    10.6    …    13
4    .    DJS152    …    7.9    …    11
5    .    DJS161    …    7.9    …    12
6    .    DJS146    …    6.7    …    8
7    .    DJS145    …    6.4    …    9
8    .    DJS147    …    6.4    …    7
9    .    DJS163    …    6.3    …    8
10    .    DJS158    …    6.1    …    7
11    .    DJS156    …    5.6    …    7
12    .    DJS119    …    3.8    …    3
13    .    DJS130    …    3.1    …    4
14    .    DJS136    …    2.9    …    4
15    .    DJS109    …    2.1    …    4
16    .    DJS142    …    2.0    …    2
17    .    DJS141    …    1.9    …    2
18    .    DJS135    …    1.2    …    2
19    .    DJS116    …    1.2    …    2
20    .    DJS134    …    1.1    …    1
21    .    DJS126    …    1.1    …    1
22    .    DJS132    …    1.0    …    1
23    .    DJS110    …    0.9    …    1
…    .    Total    …    112.2    …    140

Week 21 Utilization data
Training loops are now occuring out of Boca Raton, flight operations have changed
Craft below tail DJS141 are hardly utilized, training or single KGNV > Boca Raton hops


Row    ___    Craft    _____    Flights    _____    Hours
1    …    DJS147    …    18    …    12.4
2    …    DJS158    …    11    …    10.2
3    …    DJS152    …    11    …    7.8
4    …    DJS148    …    8    …    7.6
5    …    DJS162    …    8    …    7.5
6    …    DJS146    …    8    …    7.0
7    …    DJS156    …    7    …    6.7
8    …    DJS139    …    6    …    6.6
9    …    DJS163    …    8    …    6.3
10    …    DJS161    …    6    …    4.6
11    …    DJS119    …    4    …    4.1
12    …    DJS141    …    6    …    3.7
13    …    DJS145    …    4    …    2.6
14    …    DJS132    …    1    …    1.9
15    …    DJS142    …    3    …    1.8
16    …    DJS160    …    2    …    1.4
17    …    DJS126    …    1    …    1.2
18    …    DJS116    …    1    …    1.1
19    …    DJS153    …    1    …    1.1
20    …    DJS131    …    1    …    1.1
21    …    DJS115    …    1    …    1.0
22    …    DJS110    …    3    …    1.0
23    …    DJS150    …    1    …    0.4
____    ____    Total    …    120    …    99.0

In the current print issue of AIN, The DayJet CEO says that only 7 of the planes are used for revenue currently. The rest are for training or in maintenance. They expect that to improve, obviously . We'll see. -David

---

-David, KBED, Mustang #165

really?

So why are they opening up new dayports and markets as fast as possible? Seems like someone is trying to make excuses for lack of demand...

I think the real answer is, they ony have enough customers to keep 7 planes somewhat busy... even at that, they have has to multiply their service area way beyond initial expectations to keep ene 1/4 of their fleet busy.

What do you think?

Rather than number of flights and total hours, I'm more interested in peak loads and deadheads, which are a better prognosticator of potential profitability. This business is like power generation or computing servers: you have a high infrastructure cost with lots of expensive assets that you want to keep busy as much as possible. Unfortunately, real world demand is very "spikey" so your expensive assets sit idle for a large percentage of time.

I check FlightAware randomly for the DayJet fleet, especially when I think there should be heavy demand like a Monday morning or Friday afternoon. For the first time this past week, I saw they had 6 planes in the air at one time.

I agree that the demand is hard to forecast and likely will not occupy a significant portion of their fleet. If they extend their range, deadhead costs escalate. Even if all 28 planes were flying at once, you'd probably have 20-22 hrs / day that they were not flying as a fleet average.

So basically, I'm a skeptic of this per-seat on demand model in that geography.

---

-David, KBED, Mustang #165

Week 22 Day Jet Utilization
Flights concentrate on fewer craft this week.  Training has converter to simulators?

Index    .    Craft    …    Hours    …    Flights
1    _    DJS145    __    19.9    __    20
2    _    DJS158    __    18.0    __    15
3    _    DJS141    __    17.9    __    19
4    _    DJS153    __    13.8    __    17
5    _    DJS147    __    13.7    __    18
6    _    DJS163    __    10.0    __    12
7    _    DJS148    __    9.8    __    13
8    _    DJS150    __    6.0    __    8
9    _    DJS162    __    5.6    __    7
10    _    DJS152    __    5.3    __    3
11    _    DJS156    __    2.9    __    3
12    _    DJS142    __    2.3    __    3
13    _    DJS146    __    1.8    __    3
14    _    DJS135    __    1.1    __    1
15    _    DJS132    __    1.0    __    2
16    _    DJS161    __    0.8    __    2
17    _    DJS139    __    0.8    __    2
18    _    DJS134    __    0.1    __    2
__    __    Total    __    130.8    __    150

I once asked a guy in the cell phone business how much capacity they needed to satisfy demand, not have dropped calls, etc... he said its like the water utility. You need to have water when the tap is on, and it cannot be a drop of water, it needs to be the same flow when everyone is washing dishes and taking showers, as when everyone is asleep.

So, yes, the utility/power generation analogy seems perfect. Cell phone infrustructure is expensive as well...

- giving away cell phones, charging for minutes... hey, perhaps we're onto something that could work in jets?